Skepticism about science and medicine

In search of disinterested science

Posts Tagged ‘CoVID19’

CoVID19: what do we really know?

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2020/09/15

A visitor to my website sent me this email:

“Hello Dr Bauer. I just read your 2002 article on Confessions of an AIDS Denialist. . . . You must have a lot to say about COVID-19! I . . . would be interested in your view.”

I suspect that my reply will have been rather disappointing:

“I had a lot of fairly reliable data about AIDS and HIV, but there’s a great lack of sound, reliable data about the present circumstances.

AIDS was first noticed and named in the early 1980s, and I looked into it seriously some 20 years later. With CoVID-19, even well-informed experts have been revising their views steadily as more information comes in.

At least one thing is clear already, thanks in part to what has been learned about HIV/AIDS: There is no reliable gold-standard test for diagnosing infection by the supposed coronavirus. HIV/AIDS can be blamed for that because it was with HIV that virologists first allowed the medical profession to use antibody tests and PCR tests as diagnostic of infection even as the published peer-reviewed mainstream literature stated quite clearly that these tests could not establish the presence of infection and should not be used for diagnosis.

The reason is that pure virions, particles of HIV, have never been isolated direct from an AIDS patient.

CoVID-19 infection is being diagnosed on the basis of PCR tests without isolation of actual virus. Even if the bits of RNA or DNA being picked up by PCR could be known to be like some components of a coronavirus, that would not demonstrate that they actually originated from particles of such a virus. As De Harven  had pointed out with respect to HIV tests, what PCR picks up might come from random circulating pieces of DNA or RNA or from the expression of human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs).

I think John Ioannidis Is trying honestly and without preconceptions or conflicts of interest to understand CoVID-19, and he is eminently qualified to do so. His most recent analysis  suggests that the virulence of CoVID-19 is comparable to that of the respiratory virus(es) underlying really bad so-called flu seasons.

The numbers that are being thrown around in the mass media are more misleading than informative. For instance, numbers of cases are continually reported and publicized as disastrous without any information about the symptomatic levels of those cases.

In my view, the clearest indication that deaths can be ascribed to the influence of a novel coronavirus is the data on excess all-cause deathshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Both in Europe and in the United States, it seems that 2020 is definitely worse than the bad flu season of 2018.

The comparative data for European countries do not yield obvious information about the best way of handling the present infectious agent.

I think that one more thing is, however, quite clear: we do not properly understand why excess deaths are typically somewhat higher during “flu seasons”. Is it simply that when the weather becomes more wintry, mortality increases? Of course particularly among those who are the least healthy, which tends to be among those of greater age? Do respiratory viruses play a significant role in this? If so, should some of the measures now being advocated also be practiced during all winter seasons? What is the actual efficacy, if any, of vaccinating against flu?

I do not subscribe to the conspiracy theories that regard the pandemic as planned by governments, agencies, and corporations (e.g. the Gates Foundation) as a step toward increasing domination and control of the general population. I do believe very strongly, however, that the circumstances are being made considerably worse for most people through deliberate actions of pharmaceutical companies, associated conflicts of interest among legislatures and executives, and widespread general incompetence, together with the lack of an impartial, authoritative source of scientific knowledge and understanding.

A sad lesson from HIV/AIDS is that official agencies dealing with medicine in general and virology in particular are not truly competent. Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield, the CDC as a whole, the World Health Organization, etc., continue to be quite wrong about HIV/AIDS. And the approval of drugs and medical devices is incompetent or corrupt or both, and is no safeguard against products pushed by the pharmaceutical companies even when their potential benefits are greatly outweighed by the risks and harms; look no further than HPV vaccines, for example.”

Posted in medical practices, peer review, science is not truth | Tagged: , | 5 Comments »

Percentages absolute or relative? Politicizing science

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2020/08/24

Convalescent plasma reduces the mortality of CoVID-19 by 35%, citizens of the United States were assured in a press conference on 23 August 2020, and the approval of this treatment for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) underscored that this constituted a breakthrough in treating the pandemic disease.

As usual, critical voices ventured to disagree. One physician reported that he had been using this treatment for a considerable length of time and had noted a perhaps marginal, certainly not great benefit for this intervention. Others pointed out that the use of convalescent plasma in general was nothing new.

That “35%” mortality reduction was emphasized a number of times in the televised official announcement. It was only a few days later that we learned that the original data suggested a reduction of mortality to about 8% from 11-12% for presumably comparable patients not so treated. In other words, 3 to 4% of patients may have derived a benefit in terms of decreased mortality.

Indeed, 8 is about 35% less than 11-12. However, a 3.5% reduction in mortality is nothing like a 35% reduction.

This episode illustrates what is quite commonplace as drug companies seek to impress doctors and patients with the wonderful benefits to be derived from their medications: relative effects rather than absolute ones are reported.

This is just one of the many things wrong with present-day practices in medicine, of course; dozens of works describing the dysfunctions are listed in my periodically updated bibliography.

Investigative reporters also revealed and that the FDA’s emergency use approval had come at the behest of the White House. Historians will recall that the whole science of genetics was derailed in the Soviet Union for a generation as Stalin’s administration enshrined as science the pseudoscience invented by Lysenko.

Posted in conflicts of interest, fraud in medicine, media flaws, medical practices, politics and science, prescription drugs, scientific literacy | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

CoVID19, HIV — Enlightenment? Reason based on evidence?

Posted by Henry Bauer on 2020/05/02

The historian Jon Meacham has quite often described the presidency of Donald Trump as signifying an end to the Enlightenment era that began in the 17th century, when reason and logic based on evidence began to supersede the authority of monarchs and clerics.

Sadly, though, those being hailed as the voices of reason against Trump over the Coronavirus hysteria cannot be said to represent reason and logic based on evidence.

Those leading the public charge for “science” are Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield, and Deborah Birx. Yet they continue to uphold and disseminate the mistaken notion that HIV is a deadly, sexually transmitted, virus.

(For those who do not yet know that HIV doesn’t cause AIDS, see the bibliography at The Case against HIV; consult my The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory; for a short synopsis, read “Confession of an ‘AIDS denialist’: How I became a crank because we’re being lied to about HIV/AIDS”)

The primary blame for the acceptance of that mistaken notion about “HIV” must rest on the unbridled and unscrupulous ambitions of Robert Gallo (read John Crewdson, Science   Fictions), lent institutional authority by an unwitting Secretary of Health and Human Services. Incompetent statistics at the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention had set the stage (John Lauritsen, ch. 1 in The AIDS War: Propaganda, Profiteering and Genocide from the Medical-Industrial Complex, 1993).

Anthony Fauci and Robert Redfield were enthusiastic acolytes of Gallo from the very beginning (Birx seems to have become involved in HIV/AIDS considerably later). Redfield worked in the Army HIV Research Group in the very earliest days of AIDS. He is one of the co-authors on articles that reported in the mid-1980s that teenage female prospective recruits tested HIV-positive no less frequently than did teenage males, indeed often more frequently. That was clearly at odds with the accepted belief that HIV entered the United States first among gay men in a few large metropolitan areas. It had been this contradiction of the prevailing theory of the origin of HIV that stimulated me to look into what HIV tests were all about. Redfield, it seems, what was not so stimulated; why not? Was he not thinking about what he was finding?

Among the other evidence Redfield published, of course together with others, was that the localities in the United States with the highest prevalence of HIV were, oddly enough, not the areas with the highest prevalence of AIDS; Huh? Surely that should raise the question of whether HIV is the cause of AIDS. It didn’t for Redfield, apparently.

Then too the earliest data from HIV tests, again from the Army HIV Research Group including Redfield, showed black Americans to be more frequently HIV-positive than others by a significant multiple — a racial disparity that the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) has been quite willing to ascribe to stereotypical prejudices about black sexual behavior.
(Full details of the Redfield and associated publications are in The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory).

Later, Redfield claimed to have established heterosexual transmission of HIV through a study that presumed that an HIV-positive spouse could only have contracted HIV from the other spouse (JAMA 253 [1985] 1571-3; among 10 co-authors, Redfield comes first, and Gallo last as director of the lab). The assumption seems without obvious basis, and there also seems no a priori reason to wonder whether a sexually transmitted agent could be transmitted heterosexually — unless of course one harbors strangely homophobic views.

When Redfield was appointed Director of the CDC in 2018, Laurie Garrett reported that he had promoted a vaccine against HIV even after it was shown not to work, and that he holds views about sex that appear to be those of a religious ideologue.

Anthony Fauci, for his part, attempted in 1993 to explain away the often-noted numbers of AIDS patients who were HIV negative by declaring this to be a disease separate from AIDS, namely CD4 T-cell lymphopenia, a condition not much talked of nowadays (“CD4+ T-lymphocytopenia without HIV infection—no lights, no camera, just facts”, New England Journal of Medicine, 328 [1993] 429-31).

The legacy of the HIV blunder includes claiming a viral cause without isolating the postulated virus; using routinely tests that have never been validated because there is no gold standard test in absence of properly isolated virus; diagnosing infection because test results are positive even as the test kits warn explicitly that they are not valid for diagnosis of infection; corrupting the concept of “isolate” to call it isolation when bits of RNA or DNA can be detected by PCR.

After one of my closest friends in Australia had read The Origin, Persistence and Failings of HIV/AIDS Theory, he remarked that a sad side-effect would be an overall loss of confidence in science. That did not happen; perhaps it will take the long-term damage from the CoVID19 affair to do that.

Meanwhile, given the history and legacy of the HIV blunder, one might be inclined not to believe what Fauci, Redfield, and Birx have to say about viral diseases (or perhaps anything else). Nevertheless, these three prominent representatives of contemporary medical science are being widely hailed for representing authentic science by contrast to Trumpist ignorance.

More later about this in the wider context of illustrating an end to the Enlightenment era.

 

Posted in media flaws, science is not truth, scientific culture, scientific literacy, scientists are human, unwarranted dogmatism in science | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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